International Wheat and Corn Prices Weaken on Low Export Forecast

International wheat and corn prices weaken on low export forecast. USDA has made some minor changes in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Weak Prices

Wheat prices on the Chicago board of trade fell by 10 cents and stood at USD 5.42 per bushel after touching USD 5.39, lowest since late December. CBOT March corn came to USD 3.79-3/4, down by 2 cents. Further, March soybean settled at USD 8.84-3/4 a bushel with 1/2 cent decrease. The prices tumbled after the USDA report revealed a change in export forecasts.

Wheat Export Forecast

It changed the wheat export forecast to 940 million bushels, 25 million bushels, or 2.6% less than January forecast. Besides, it is over 13% down from 1.080 billion bushels in 2018-19. The change came after an increase in exports by 25-million-bushel. Forecast for hard red winter wheat stood at 484 million bushels, five million bushels less than in January. Further, hard red spring wheat was forecast at 249 million bushels as against 254 million bushels in January.

However, the forecast for soft red winter remained unchanged at 106 million bushels. Exports of White wheat and durum were projected at 80 million bushels and 21 million bushels respectively. The USDA stated that the exports are subject to increase due to increasing competitiveness in global markets.

Corn Carryover

The export forecast for corn remained unchanged at 1.892 billion bushels. However, it came down by 15% from 2.221 billion bushels in 2018-19. In 2019-20, the export forecast of corn stood at 1.725 billion bushels, 50 million bushels less than in January. The unchanged forecast was the result of slow shipments and an increase in the projection of corn use in ethanol.

Corn Prices Weaken due to Low Demand and Export Forecast

Soybean Projections

The USDA has lowered export projections for soybeans. It has forecasted soybean export at 425 million bushels, which is 50 million bushels or 11% down from January. Further, it is 53% or 909 million bushels less than in 2019. However, there was no change in demand and supply of soybean and hence average price to farmers in 2019-20 was lowered 25¢, to USD 8.75 per bushel. Further, global wheat, corn, and soybean ending stocks were forecast at 288.03, 296.84 and 98.86 million tonnes, respectively.

In all, the export forecast for corn and soybean has been reduced.

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